Flaws in the Crystal Ball.

Picture of crystal ballParliament may be in recess but that doesn’t stop the pundits or for that matter the political spin merchants from speculating on the outcome of the Police Commissioner elections.

Conservativehome has used analysis by others to predict they will win Lincolnshire and take 21 PCC posts nationally against Labour’s 20. The analysis doesn’t take account of independent candidates though……. We shouldn’t criticise them too much for that should we?  After all they have designed an electoral system stacked against independent candidates. (see my blog here on the subject).One might actually call it gerrymandering……..

Their analysis then gets pulled apart by ‘noise of the crowd’. Interestingly they speculate that conservativehome may have deliberately set high expectations of wins for the conservatives in order to damage David Cameron when the party falters. Who knows what their motives are for coming out with 21 wins but it will all be decided on 15th November and not before.

Both sites publish mere speculation, no matter how much they polish their flawed crystal balls.  What is not speculation is that as I talk to people around the county they are sick and tired of our politicians and the way they do politics.  Many don’t trust politicians and they certainly don’t trust them to run the police. 
Provided the public turn out and vote to protect our police from political interference expect some shocks.

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About djbowles

Putting Lincolnshire first, challenging out party politicians
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